Luxembourg: NRA 2025

Luxembourg National Risk Assessment (NRA) 2025

Luxembourg’s National Risk Assessment (NRA) reveals a concerning trend: the Grand Duchy is facing increasing threats from several serious predicate offences. While known for its strong financial sector and high living standards, recent data from law enforcement and judicial authorities indicates a rise in crimes such as fraud, forgery, theft, and drug trafficking. This article provides a comprehensive look at the key domestic threat areas, their evolving nature, and the implications for the country’s AML/CFT regime.

1. Fraud and Forgery: A Rapidly Rising Threat

Alarming Growth

According to the Grand-Ducal Police, fraud cases have surged drastically in recent years. In 2022, fraud cases more than doubled from 2,299 in 2021 to 4,689. The upward trend continued into 2023, with an additional 31% increase.

Cyber-Enabled Fraud (CEF): A Digital Epidemic

Luxembourg is not immune to the global surge in cyber-enabled fraud. Increased digital connectivity, online banking, and e-commerce activities have created fertile ground for CEF. Common schemes include:

• Phishing and illicit banking activities
• Crypto-related investment scams
• Identity theft and impersonation scams (“Hi Mum” or “grandson” frauds)

The anonymity of the internet, the global reach of crypto assets, and the involvement of non-cooperative jurisdictions hinder effective prosecution. In 2023, scammers began dispatching individuals to victims’ homes to steal credit card information or valuables using fake identities—a shift from remote to more direct tactics.

Domestic Exposure and Prosecution

From 2020 to 2023:

• Over 1,700 fraud and forgery cases were filed.
• More than 700 convictions resulted in prison sentences.
• The CRF transferred over 500 related cases to State Prosecutors, making up more than half of all dissemination.

Given these trends, fraud and forgery are assessed as “High” domestic threats.

2. Robbery and Theft: Persistent and Evolving

Theft as the Most Common Predicate Offence

Simple thefts (“vols simples”) represent approximately 20% of all predicate offences. There are two primary actor profiles:
• Local actors: Typically homeless or drug-addicted individuals seeking to finance survival.
• Organised foreign groups: Attracted by Luxembourg’s wealth and geographic location, these actors commit high-stakes crimes such as:
    o ATM explosions (8 incidents from 2020–2023)
    o Armed robberies and burglaries
    o Luxury vehicle thefts

Domestic Exposure and Response
• Nearly 5,000 robbery/theft cases were registered.
• Over 1,500 criminals were sentenced.
• Robbery and theft are also among the top five crime categories in Europol-related exchanges.
These figures justify the classification of robbery and theft as “High” threat offences domestically.

3. Drug Trafficking: Cross-Border and Local Dynamics

Strategic Vulnerabilities

Luxembourg’s open borders and proximity to drug market hubs (e.g., France, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands) make it susceptible to drug trafficking. Europol notes a shift towards larger consignments via sea, impacting Luxembourg through logistic chains.

Street-Level Dealing and Foreign Networks

The Grand-Ducal Police highlights persistent street dealing in districts such as:
• Luxembourg City’s Railway Station area
• Cities in southern Luxembourg and near the French border

Dutch criminal networks are increasingly supplying heroin, while local offenders remain active in cocaine and marijuana distribution.

Prosecution and Impact

• Over 700 drug trafficking cases opened between 2020 and 2023.
• 670 individuals convicted.
• Drug trafficking is one of the most lucrative crime areas, often involving significant cash use.
Consequently, drug trafficking is rated a “High” domestic threat.

4. Medium and Low Threat Offences

While the NRA primarily focuses on high-risk crimes, other predicate offences have been assessed with medium to very low threat levels. These include crimes like corruption, tax offences, and environmental crimes. Though less prevalent, they still require continued monitoring and preventive measures to ensure they do not escalate.

Strengthening AML/CFT Amid High Domestic Threats

Luxembourg’s domestic crime landscape is evolving rapidly, particularly in the areas of fraud, theft, and drug trafficking. The rise in cyber-enabled fraud and cross-border criminal activity underscores the importance of robust law enforcement cooperation, public awareness, and advanced AML/CFT technologies.

As the country adapts to these emerging threats, continued investment in cybersecurity, cross-border intelligence sharing, and technological tools such as AI-powered fraud detection, crypto transaction monitoring, and enhanced due diligence solutions will be crucial.

Read the full report here.

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